热点思考 | 主权债务“迷你风暴”（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Group 1 - Recent adjustments in the sovereign debt markets of Europe and Japan have led to a global financial market risk-off sentiment, driven by political instability and rising expectations for fiscal easing [2][3] - The rise in long-term bond yields is primarily attributed to a rebound in inflation and elevated medium- to long-term inflation expectations, with core CPI in major Western economies returning to the "3 era" [2][3] - The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) are marginally tightening their monetary policies, contributing to the increase in bond yields, while the Federal Reserve remains in a rate-cutting phase [3][32] Group 2 - The U.S. monetary market is undergoing a "stress test" due to the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction, the rebuilding of the Treasury General Account (TGA), and seasonal tax payments, raising concerns about a potential repeat of the 2019 repo crisis [4][58] - The liquidity environment in the U.S. monetary market is somewhat similar to that of September 2019, but the risk of a repeat "repo crisis" is considered manageable due to the gradual nature of the Fed's balance sheet reduction and the overall liquidity remaining ample [4][65][69] Group 3 - The risk of a "Treasury tantrum" in the U.S. is currently deemed controllable, with several factors supporting the stability of the U.S. debt market, including the passage of the "Big and Beautiful Act" and a favorable fiscal situation [4][78] - The long-term U.S. Treasury yields are expected to trend upward, driven by an increase in term premiums and a return to a "fiscal dominance" paradigm, indicating a higher frequency of simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and currencies [4][83] Group 4 - The persistent inflation and rising inflation expectations are key drivers for the increase in long-term yields, with the U.K. experiencing core inflation rates exceeding those of the U.S. and Japan [42][44] - The marginal tightening of monetary policies by central banks in the U.K., Europe, and Japan has further propelled the rise in long-term bond yields, with expectations for fewer rate cuts in the near future [53][58]