Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is experiencing a significant downturn in revenue growth, with a notable shift from positive to negative growth rates due to policy impacts and inventory pressures [4][5]. Group 1: Revenue and Market Dynamics - In Q2 2025, the total revenue of the liquor sector declined by 4.93% year-on-year, indicating a severe impact from policy changes and an ongoing industry adjustment [4]. - High-end liquor revenue growth has noticeably slowed, while national mid-range liquor companies are accelerating inventory clearance, and local brands are focusing on inventory reduction and market order maintenance [4]. Group 2: Cash Flow and Distributor Adjustments - Cash receipts from liquor sales fell by 3.18% year-on-year in Q2 2025, reflecting weakened demand and reduced confidence among distributors [5]. - The number of distributors for most liquor companies has been adjusted in the first half of 2025, with notable increases in distributor concentration for Wuliangye and optimization for Shanxi Fenjiu [5]. Group 3: Profitability and Cost Structure - The comprehensive gross margin for the liquor sector in Q2 2025 was 80.46%, showing a slight year-on-year decline, with high-end liquor margins decreasing marginally [6]. - The net profit margin for the sector fell by 1.01 percentage points year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders declining by 7.5%, indicating pressure on profitability due to product structure changes and fixed costs [7].
【食品饮料】加速出清,有望见底——白酒板块2025年中报总结(叶倩瑜/李嘉祺)
光大证券研究·2025-09-09 23:08