A股牛市能撑多久？

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of the Chinese stock market appears driven by liquidity rather than fundamental improvements, with significant fluctuations indicating a market influenced by capital rather than corporate earnings [2][3][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of the end of August, the CSI 300 index had risen approximately 17% year-to-date, but experienced a sharp decline of 3.4% in early September, with the tech sector suffering even greater losses [1][2]. - The increase in margin trading balances by 19% over the past two months, reaching about 2.2 trillion yuan, marks the highest level since 2015, indicating a resurgence of leverage in the market [1][3]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Current investor behavior reflects a "passive entry" into the market, driven by poor returns from other asset classes, contrasting with the "blind optimism" seen in 2015 when retail investors were actively encouraged to invest [3][4]. - International investors are favoring markets in Japan and Europe over Chinese A-shares, with significant net inflows into these markets while Chinese equity funds saw a net outflow of approximately 1.1 billion dollars in early August [4][5]. Group 3: Profitability Analysis - The average Return on Equity (ROE) for CSI 300 constituents is around 10%, with Return on Assets (ROA) at approximately 1.2% and net profit margins between 11-12%, which are considered low compared to historical averages [4][5]. - Compared to international benchmarks, the ROE for the CSI 300 is lower than that of the S&P 500 (14-18%) and European STOXX 600 (10-12%), indicating a weaker profitability profile for Chinese companies [6][7]. Group 4: Market Sustainability - The sustainability of the current market rally hinges on genuine corporate profitability rather than liquidity-driven momentum, as historical patterns suggest that long-term market strength is tied to consistent earnings growth [6][7]. - The current market environment is likened to a "mahjong parlor" where limited entertainment options lead to continued participation, rather than a strong belief in future profitability [5][6].