【广发宏观郭磊】价格趋势有小幅改善

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic indicators for August, highlighting a year-on-year Consumer Price Index (CPI) decrease of 0.4% and a Producer Price Index (PPI) decrease of 2.9%, which aligns closely with the company's predictions. The article emphasizes the impact of base effects on these indices and suggests a slight improvement in the economic outlook for September and beyond [1][5][19]. Summary by Sections CPI and PPI Analysis - August CPI decreased by 0.4%, lower than the predicted -0.13%, while PPI decreased by 2.9%, closely matching the forecast of -2.96%. The simulated deflation index based on CPI and PPI is approximately -1.40%, similar to the previous value of -1.44% [1][5]. - The article notes that August experienced significant base pressure for CPI and PPI, indicating a collision of the highest CPI base pressure and the largest PPI base advantage of the year [1][6]. Monthly Trends - Both CPI and PPI remained flat month-on-month in August, showing slight improvement compared to previous periods. Notably, PPI components marked the first month of positive growth in 2023, and core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose to a new high of 0.9% year-on-year [1][8][19]. - The non-food CPI segment showed weaker month-on-month performance compared to July, primarily due to the price rhythm of durable goods. Despite this, household appliances still saw a month-on-month increase of 1.1% and a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [13][14]. PPI Component Insights - The article highlights a clear stabilization in upstream prices, with mining and raw materials showing significant month-on-month positive changes. Key industries such as coal mining and black metal smelting transitioned from negative to positive growth [16][17]. - The automotive manufacturing sector continued to experience a decline of 0.3% month-on-month, primarily attributed to traditional fuel vehicles, while prices for photovoltaic equipment and new energy vehicles showed reduced year-on-year declines [16][17]. Policy Implications - The article suggests that the rising price indicators in the PMI over three consecutive months indicate initial effectiveness of the "anti-involution" policies. The PPI data for August supports this conclusion, with a clear policy direction aimed at consolidating competitive restructuring in key industries [3][19]. - Looking ahead, the company forecasts that September's CPI and PPI will benefit from favorable base effects, projecting a year-on-year CPI increase of 0.15% and a PPI decrease of 2.55%, indicating potential improvements in deflationary pressures [19][20]. Market Dynamics - The article discusses the transition from liquidity-driven asset pricing to profit-driven phases, contingent on actual and nominal growth recovery. The construction industry and PPI are identified as critical indicators for this transition [4][20].