LSEG跟“宗” | 金价再创历史新高 可能高处未算高

Core Insights - The market anticipates three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, with probabilities exceeding 70% for cuts in October and December, potentially lowering rates to around 2% to 2.25% by June next year [2][24][27] - The strong performance of the US dollar and the softening of US stocks occurred despite expectations of a rate cut, influenced by disappointing job growth data [27] - The gold price to North American gold mining stock ratio has dropped to 13.74X, marking a 28.2% decline this year, indicating that North American gold mining stocks have outperformed physical gold [20][21] CFTC Data Analysis - As of September 2, net long positions in COMEX gold increased by 14% to 525 tons, marking the highest level in six weeks, while net long positions in COMEX silver rose by 19.9% to 6,380 tons [3][7] - The net long position in Nymex platinum increased to 28 tons, the highest in ten weeks, while palladium remains in a significant net short position for 138 weeks [8][11] - The correlation between gold prices and silver remains strong, with silver prices up 41.5% this year, and net long positions in silver funds increasing by 40.7% [7][9] Market Sentiment Indicators - The gold-silver ratio, a measure of market sentiment, was at 87.515, reflecting a 3.7% decline this year, while the ratio has increased by 13% in 2024 [22][23] - The investment community's focus on ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) factors has led to a trend where mining stocks have underperformed compared to the underlying commodities [21][20] Economic Outlook - The potential for stagflation is highlighted, with the need for investment in commodities and defensive stocks if inflation pressures rise again after rate cuts [28][29] - The market is closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's actions and economic data trends, as these will significantly influence commodity prices and investment strategies moving forward [28][29]