中国Robotaxi车队明年底前增长10倍！汇丰：未来已来

Core Viewpoint - HSBC predicts that the Chinese Robotaxi industry will experience an expansion wave from the second half of 2025 to 2026, driven by technological maturity, enhanced policy support, and improved fleet operational returns, with Robotaxi services expected to be 10% to 20% cheaper than traditional taxis and ride-hailing services [1][2]. Technological and Operational Developments - The Robotaxi fleet size in China is expected to grow tenfold during the anticipated expansion period, with successful operations already observed in limited areas of major cities like Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Beijing, and Shanghai [2]. - The average cost of a single Robotaxi has decreased to approximately 300,000 RMB (40,000 USD) due to falling sensor costs, while vehicles are equipped with enhanced processing capabilities, superior AI algorithms, and larger datasets [2]. Regulatory Environment - The regulatory landscape is becoming more favorable, with expectations that authorities will issue more licenses and open additional service areas, such as expanding Robotaxi services across Guangzhou [3]. - Operators can obtain licenses by demonstrating good safety records and collaborating with local fleet partners, which will support the growth of Robotaxi services and increase public acceptance [8]. Market Dynamics - The relationship between traditional ride-hailing companies and Robotaxi operators is evolving, with ride-hailing companies increasingly interested in collaborating with Robotaxi firms to build fleets [4]. - The shift towards Robotaxi services is driven by three main factors: the potential for higher profit margins by reducing driver costs, strict regulatory oversight favoring established platforms, and strong fleet order momentum [5][7]. Commercialization and Adoption - The commercialization of autonomous taxi services is at a critical juncture, with expectations for significant breakthroughs in adoption rates by 2025-2026 due to technological readiness, regulatory support, and increased public acceptance [6][8]. - Data from 如祺出行 indicates that over half of first-time users are likely to use Robotaxi services again, highlighting the potential for repeat usage [8]. Global Partnerships and Expansion - Global mobility platforms are actively investing in the Robotaxi sector, with Uber forming strategic partnerships with Chinese Robotaxi companies like 小马智行 and 文远知行, as well as with autonomous driving technology firms like Momenta [9]. - These collaborations signify a recognition of China's leading position in Robotaxi technology and an acceleration of international deployment efforts, aiming to replicate domestic success on a global scale [9].