Core Viewpoint - The article draws a parallel between human hypothermia and economic conditions, suggesting that when the economy is "hypothermic," it may create a false sense of warmth, leading to misinterpretations of economic health [1][4]. Economic Data vs. Perception - Economic data often lags behind real-time events, leading to a disconnect between actual economic conditions and public perception [4]. - Japan's economic stagnation over 30 years post-bubble burst is highlighted as a case study, where the Consumer Price Index (CPI) only increased by 7.5% from 1991 to 2021, averaging an annual growth of just 0.25% [4][6]. Japan's Economic Decline - Japan's per capita GDP in 1991 was $28,666, peaking at $38,467 in 1994, but by 2024, it is projected to be only $32,420, indicating a significant decline when adjusted for inflation [6][9]. - The Nikkei 225 index peaked at 38,900 points in 1989 but fell to around 8,700 points by 2012, illustrating the prolonged economic downturn [9][11]. Policy Misjudgments - Japanese authorities underestimated the impact of the real estate bubble's collapse, leading to ineffective economic policies [11][12]. - The Bank of Japan's delayed response in shifting from tight to loose monetary policy contributed to the prolonged economic stagnation [12]. Ineffective Fiscal Policies - Japan's fiscal policies oscillated between expansion and contraction, lacking coherence and effectiveness, which hindered economic recovery [12][25]. - Public works spending was often misallocated, focusing on low-impact infrastructure projects in declining regions, leading to wasted resources [15][25]. Lessons from Japan's Experience - The article emphasizes the importance of targeted investment in emerging industries to avoid economic stagnation, as Japan failed to capitalize on new sectors like technology and renewable energy [19][20]. - Japan's experience serves as a cautionary tale about the dangers of misallocated public spending and the need for coherent economic policies to foster growth [27][28].
李迅雷专栏 | 失温时为何会感受到“热”
中泰证券资管·2025-09-10 11:32