财富FORTUNE·2025-09-10 13:09Core Viewpoint - The AI computing power sector, represented by optical modules CPO, has been a significant driver of stock market performance in 2023, with the optical module CPO index rising over 100% this year, but recent market corrections indicate increasing divergence in investor sentiment [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since April, the A-share market has shown a gradual upward trend after a phase of bottoming out, with optical module CPO stocks leading the gains [2]. - Major companies in the optical module sector, such as Tianfu Communication, Xinyi Sheng, and Zhongji Xuchuang, have experienced significant stock price fluctuations, with recent declines following a period of strong performance [2][3]. Group 2: Company Performance - Companies like Xinyi Sheng, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Tianfu Communication have heavily relied on overseas markets, with their overseas revenue shares being approximately 94%, 86%, and 78% respectively, primarily from North American clients like Nvidia, Amazon, and Google [3][4]. - In the first half of the year, Xinyi Sheng's net profit surged 3.6 times to 3.9 billion yuan, while Zhongji Xuchuang led with a revenue scale of 23.8 billion yuan and a net profit nearing 4 billion yuan [3][4]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - The optical module CPO technology is crucial for AI computing, enabling high-speed data transmission essential for AI server efficiency [2][3]. - Recent announcements from major clients, such as Google Cloud, indicate strong future capital expenditures, particularly for 800G optical modules, suggesting continued demand growth in the sector [4]. Group 4: Risks and Market Sentiment - The optical module CPO sector is facing signals of high valuation, crowded positions, and reduced media enthusiasm, leading to a declining risk-reward ratio [4][5]. - The low technical barriers to entry in the optical module market may invite new competitors, potentially leading to price competition and overcapacity issues [4][5]. - Diverging market opinions exist, with some analysts projecting optimistic profit growth for companies like Zhongji Xuchuang, while others caution against overly idealistic forecasts that overlook cyclical risks [5][6]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The demand for optical modules is expected to grow alongside global AI computing expansion, but the era of high profits may not be sustainable due to increasing competition and standardization [6]. - Investors are advised to maintain realistic expectations regarding returns and to be aware of the cyclical nature of the industry, which can lead to significant market fluctuations [6].