中金 • 全球研究 | 东南亚消费品研究：舌尖上的盛宴

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the growing investment opportunities in localized industries in Southeast Asia, particularly in the food and beverage sector, driven by a favorable demographic structure and increasing purchasing power [2][3]. Group 1: Market Overview - The total addressable market (TAM) for key localized consumption segments in Southeast Asia is projected to grow at compound annual growth rates (CAGR) of 7.7% for alcoholic beverages, 8.4% for soft drinks, 6.0% for dairy products, 9.1% for staple foods, and 3.6% for food services from 2024 to 2029 [2]. - The consumer base in Southeast Asia consists of approximately 624 million people, with nearly 70% being millennials, Generation Z, and Generation Alpha, indicating a strong potential for future consumption growth [2][3]. Group 2: Consumer Spending Insights - In 2024, total consumption in Southeast Asia is expected to reach $2.1 trillion, accounting for 55% of GDP, with food and beverages representing 24% to 36% of personal consumption expenditures [3][26]. - The average annual spending on food and beverages in Southeast Asia is around $1,250, significantly lower than in mature East Asian markets like South Korea and Japan, suggesting substantial room for growth and premiumization [3][26]. Group 3: Key Drivers of Consumption - The young and growing population, particularly in Indonesia and Vietnam, supports robust private consumption, while rising income levels among millennials and Generation Z are expected to drive demand for modern retail and dining experiences [6][8]. - Government stimulus measures and overseas remittances from workers abroad are also crucial in supporting domestic consumption in countries like the Philippines and Indonesia [9][6]. Group 4: Alcoholic Beverages Market - The alcoholic beverage market in Southeast Asia is projected to reach $48.3 billion in 2024, with beer holding a dominant market share of 65% [32]. - Emerging markets like Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam are expected to see double-digit growth rates in alcoholic beverage retail sales from 2024 to 2029, while more mature markets like Singapore and Thailand will experience slower growth [39][32]. Group 5: Soft Drinks Market - The soft drink market in Southeast Asia is anticipated to reach $39.3 billion in 2024, with carbonated drinks and bottled water being the leading categories [45]. - There is a growing demand for low-sugar and functional beverages, driven by health concerns and government policies like sugar taxes in countries such as Thailand and Malaysia [45][49]. Group 6: Dairy Products Market - The dairy market in Southeast Asia is expected to reach $24.7 billion in 2024, with fresh milk and infant formula being the largest segments [51]. - The region's per capita dairy consumption is low at 11 liters per year compared to the global average of 28 liters, indicating significant growth potential as income levels rise and health awareness increases [51][54].