【固收】CPI和PPI均环比持平——2025年8月CPI和PPI数据点评兼债市观点（张旭/李枢川）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent CPI and PPI data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, highlighting a decline in CPI and PPI, with specific attention to the structural changes in prices and the implications for the bond market [4][5]. CPI and PPI Summary - In August 2025, the CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, with a core CPI increase of 0.9%, indicating a slight upward trend in core inflation [4][5]. - The CPI's month-on-month growth rate was 0%, showing a decline from July's 0.4% [5]. - The PPI saw a year-on-year decline of 2.9%, an improvement from July's 3.6% drop, and the month-on-month growth rate was also 0%, marking a halt in the negative trend after eight months [5]. Structural Analysis - The CPI structure revealed that food prices continued to decline, energy prices remained low, and service prices showed an increase in growth [5]. - The PPI's structural differentiation was noted, with upstream extraction prices rising quickly, but the transmission to downstream industrial products was not yet evident [5]. Bond Market Insights - The bond market has shown a divergence in yield trends since August 2025, with short-term yields stable and long-term yields increasing significantly [6]. - The current liquidity is relatively loose, leading to an optimistic outlook for pure bonds, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to stabilize around 1.7% [6]. - Convertible bonds have underperformed relative to underlying stocks since August 25, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to strong demand and limited supply [6].