美股研究社·2025-09-11 07:56Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipated release of the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) report in the U.S., highlighting persistent inflation pressures driven by tariffs and other economic factors [6][10]. Economic Forecasts - Economists expect the August CPI to rise by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year, marking the highest level since January and deviating further from the Federal Reserve's 2% target [6][9]. - Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is projected to increase by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, remaining unchanged from previous values [6][9]. Tariff Impact - Christopher Hodge from Societe Generale notes that the accumulated inventory has helped ease price pressures, but with reduced inventory levels and a significant increase in tariff revenue, companies may struggle to absorb these costs indefinitely [7]. - Goldman Sachs economists predict that tariffs will continue to exert upward pressure on inflation, particularly in categories like communication equipment and household goods [9]. - Bank of America emphasizes that tariffs are gradually being passed on to consumers, contributing to sustained inflation in household goods, clothing, and leisure products [9]. Consumer Sentiment - Katie Klingensmith from Edelman Financial Engines highlights that consumer expectations for inflation over the next year have risen to 4.8%, significantly above market predictions [11]. - The article suggests that the gradual nature of tariff impacts creates a persistent sense of rising costs among households, rather than a one-time shock [11]. Future Inflation Trends - Russell Price from Ameriprise anticipates that inflation will peak between 3.2% and 3.4% around November to December, as tariff effects reach their limit [11]. - José Torres from Interactive Brokers expects a lower CPI increase of 0.1% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year, indicating a potential cooling in certain price categories [12]. Federal Reserve Outlook - The article discusses the complexities facing the Federal Reserve, as rising inflation may complicate decisions regarding interest rate cuts, despite recent weak employment data [15]. - Market expectations indicate a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with uncertainty about further cuts in October due to accelerating inflation [15].