中泰资管天团 | 唐军：资产配置需建立稳定分析框架，重视多元配置丰富回报流

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a stable analytical framework and diversified asset allocation to avoid the pitfalls of chasing trends in investment, highlighting that there is no optimal solution in asset allocation [1][4]. Group 1: Asset Allocation Strategies - The performance of FOF funds has been strong this year, attributed to effective diversified allocation strategies [6]. - The manager, Tang Jun, adjusts the allocation between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks based on market conditions, demonstrating a responsive approach to market changes [1][6]. - Tang Jun actively participates in sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and military ETFs, capitalizing on structural opportunities in a complex market environment [1][8]. Group 2: Professional Background and Insights - Tang Jun's career spans quantitative investment, fund evaluation, and macro research, providing a solid foundation for his current asset allocation work [3][4]. - His experience in quantitative research has enhanced his ability to identify various market factors, which is crucial for effective asset allocation [3][4]. - The "Zhongtai Clock" research incorporates policy analysis to better fit the domestic market, addressing the limitations of the previously used Merrill Lynch Clock [4]. Group 3: Dynamic Adjustment and Market Trends - Tang Jun believes that while macro trends provide guidance for asset allocation, the timing of price reflections can be uncertain, necessitating continuous monitoring and dynamic adjustments [6][8]. - The current allocation shows a shift towards A-shares over Hong Kong stocks, indicating a responsive strategy to market conditions [6][8]. Group 4: Avoiding Common Investment Mistakes - The article discusses the common mistake of "chasing trends," where investors buy high and sell low, and suggests establishing a stable analytical framework to counter this behavior [10][11]. - Diversification is recommended to enhance the return stream and provide confidence in maintaining the analytical framework during market fluctuations [11]. - Understanding "expectation differences" is crucial to avoid chasing trends, as short-term asset performance is often driven by the gap between fundamentals and market expectations [12].