管涛：股市上涨并非存款搬家，居民仍在“多存少贷”

Core Viewpoint - The fluctuation in resident deposits cannot adequately explain the stock market's rise and fall, as the key to stock market movements lies more with non-bank financial institutions rather than changes in resident deposits [2][3][4]. Group 1: Resident Deposit Changes and Stock Market - Since 2009, July has consistently shown negative growth in resident deposits, indicating seasonal factors rather than significant economic implications [3]. - Historical data shows that in 11 out of 17 years since 2009, the stock market rose in July, despite significant drops in resident deposits in some years [3]. - The relationship between resident deposit changes and stock market performance appears weak, as evidenced by contrasting outcomes in various years despite similar deposit declines [4]. Group 2: Non-Bank Financial Institutions - Changes in deposits from non-bank financial institutions are more reliable indicators of stock market performance, with significant increases in their deposits correlating with stock market gains [5]. - In July 2023, non-bank financial institutions saw an increase of 2.14 trillion yuan in deposits, which was a substantial year-on-year increase [5]. - A strong positive correlation exists between the changes in non-bank financial institution deposits and stock market performance, suggesting that as these deposits increase, the stock market tends to rise [6]. Group 3: Resident Sector Leverage - The trend of residents saving more and borrowing less continues, indicating a de-leveraging process within the resident sector [8]. - As of Q2 2023, the leverage ratio for the resident sector was 61.1%, a slight decrease from the previous year, reflecting ongoing de-leveraging efforts [8]. - Historical data shows that the resident sector has undergone multiple rounds of de-leveraging, with the current trend being the most recent in a series of adjustments since 2004 [12]. Group 4: Economic Context and Policy Implications - The current economic environment, characterized by high leverage ratios and a focus on de-leveraging, suggests that expectations for a quick reversal in this trend may be unrealistic [15]. - The government may need to increase leverage to stabilize and stimulate demand, especially in light of the challenges faced by the resident sector [16]. - The historical context of leverage changes in response to economic crises indicates that government intervention is crucial for maintaining macroeconomic stability [16].