美股IPO·2025-09-11 11:29Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that the launch of the "Gaode Street Ranking" by Alibaba is a clear signal of the company's renewed focus on the in-store business, which is expected to lead to more related services and products being launched, potentially increasing its market share in the local life services sector [1][3][10]. Summary by Sections Alibaba's Strategy - The "Gaode Street Ranking" is seen as a strategic move to compete directly with Meituan and Dianping, reshaping the competitive landscape in local life services [3][4]. - Alibaba's expansion in the local services sector may extend on-demand service competition into in-store services, putting further pressure on Meituan's profit margins [4][11]. User Engagement and Growth - Gaode Map, as China's largest navigation app, has nearly 200 million daily active users (DAU), providing a natural traffic entry point for Alibaba's in-store services [5]. - In August, Alibaba's monthly active users (MAU) grew by 25% year-on-year, indicating strong user engagement [8]. Financial Projections - Morgan Stanley has lowered its long-term profitability forecast for Meituan's in-store business from 2.5% to 2% due to increased competition from Alibaba [12]. - Meituan's core local business is expected to incur an operating loss of 10 billion yuan in Q3, with a significant decline in profitability projected for the 2025 fiscal year [12]. Investment Preferences - Morgan Stanley ranks Alibaba as the top preference among Chinese e-commerce giants, citing its cloud business as a leading AI enabler and anticipating continued double-digit growth in its core e-commerce customer management revenue [13]. - Despite the intensifying competition in local life services, Alibaba is expected to gain a larger share of this rapidly growing market due to its technological capabilities, user base, and financial investment capacity [14].