这轮行情能否延续？关键看这4个信号！

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current volatility in the A-share market, particularly after the index reached 3800 points, indicating uncertainty in market trends and the need for investors to assess various indicators to gauge the sustainability of the bull market [3][4][6]. Group 1: Market Indicators - The first indicator to assess is the market leverage ratio, specifically the ratio of margin financing to market capitalization, which currently stands at approximately 6.8%, up from 6.5% at the end of July but still below the 7%-9.8% range seen during the 2015 bull market [12][13]. - The second indicator is the proportion of trading volume from margin financing, which is currently about 12%. Historical data suggests that if this ratio exceeds 12%-13%, regulatory measures may be implemented to cool down the market [17][18]. Group 2: Trading Volume - A significant trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan is a crucial indicator for sustaining a bull market. Recently, the A-share market has seen trading volumes surpassing this threshold for five consecutive days, suggesting potential for continued market momentum [20][21]. - The margin financing balance has reached 2.17 trillion yuan, nearing the peak of 2.27 trillion yuan observed in 2015, indicating a strong presence of leveraged funds in the market [23]. Group 3: Fundraising and New Accounts - The scale of newly issued public funds is another important indicator. In the first three weeks of August, public funds raised an average of 11 billion yuan weekly, which is significantly lower than the fundraising levels during the 2021 bull market, indicating that retail investor enthusiasm is not yet at a peak [24][26]. - The number of new brokerage accounts opened is also a key metric. In July, 1.96 million new accounts were opened, which is considerably lower than the peaks seen in previous bull markets, suggesting that the current market is still in its early stages [33][34]. Group 4: Market Stage Assessment - Based on the four indicators discussed, the current A-share market is still in the initial phase of the bull market, with no signs of entering the acceleration or terminal phases yet [37]. - Investors are advised to hold onto their stocks while being cautious about entering the market at this stage, especially given the potential for significant market corrections [39][42].