研客专栏 | 显著下跌！集运怎么了？

Core Viewpoint - The shipping market is experiencing downward pressure on spot freight rates due to major shipping companies competing to lower rates in mid to late September and early October to increase cargo volume [4][5]. Supply Side - New ship deliveries are expected to exert long-term pressure on freight rates, with significant supply pressure anticipated in the future. Short-term supply remains ample, and the easing of congestion at European ports has effectively released capacity [5][10]. - By August 2025, approximately 192,000 TEU of new ships are scheduled for delivery, an increase of 55,000 TEU from July. The Baltic and International Maritime Council (BIMCO) predicts that 2.3 million TEU of new capacity will be delivered from 2025 to 2026, leading to a net growth of 7.2% in the global container fleet before the dismantling of older vessels [10]. - Currently, the global container ship order volume stands at 10.4 million TEU, with the ratio of ordered capacity to existing capacity rising to 31.7%, indicating significant supply pressure on freight rates [10]. Demand Side - China's imports and exports continued to grow steadily in August, but the growth rate has slowed, primarily due to weaker exports to the U.S. However, exports to the EU have reached a new high for 2023, driven by the energy transition in Europe, which has increased imports of high-value container goods [11]. - Despite this, the demand for sea freight is expected to weaken in the short term as the replenishment of inventory in the Eurozone has concluded and retailers are cautious about importing consumer goods due to inflation and high inventory levels [11]. - The restructuring of shipping alliances has led to a decrease in market concentration, reducing the ability of leading companies to control freight rates, resulting in a price competition strategy to gain market share [11]. Market Strategy - For the EC2510 contract, there is a potential further downside pressure on freight rates, with an estimated 5% decline in valuation. The EC2512 contract should not be overly bearish, as there may be opportunities for rebound after a dip [7][12]. - It is suggested that spot enterprises consider partial hedging based on their shipping plans for the next month, and to look for rebound opportunities after the EC2512 contract dips [12]. - In terms of arbitrage, there are opportunities in the EC2602-EC2606 spread [7][12].