对甲骨文“炸裂大单”的质疑：全指望OpenAI、收入都在长期、能赚钱吗、有钱建吗？

Core Viewpoint - Oracle's first fiscal quarter highlights a significant increase in Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) to $455 billion, primarily driven by a five-year contract with OpenAI worth up to $300 billion for computing power [1][3][4] Group 1: RPO Growth and AI Contracts - The RPO surged by approximately $317 billion in a single quarter, representing a year-over-year increase of 359%, largely attributed to contracts with major clients including OpenAI [4][5] - OpenAI's contract entails an average annual payment of $60 billion over five years, raising concerns about its financial viability given its current annualized revenue of around $10 billion [5][6] - Analysts from Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan highlight that about 90% of the new RPO is long-term, with only 10% expected to be recognized as revenue in the next 12 months, indicating delayed revenue recognition [5][6] Group 2: Financial Performance and Guidance - Oracle's total revenue growth for the first fiscal quarter was 11%, below the market expectation of 13%, with cloud services and license support revenue growth also falling short of consensus [6][7] - The company provided a revenue growth guidance of 12-14% for the second fiscal quarter, which is lower than the market's expectation of 15% [6][7] - Free cash flow for the first fiscal quarter was negative $362 million, significantly below the expected $1.271 billion, due to high capital expenditures for cloud infrastructure [6][7] Group 3: Profitability and Growth Trade-offs - Oracle is engaged in a trade-off between profit and growth, with many new orders related to AI model training, which typically have lower profit margins [7][8] - Despite the anticipated increase in revenue expectations, earnings per share (EPS) projections are expected to remain largely unchanged, while free cash flow expectations may be downgraded [7][8] - Oracle's operating profit growth guidance for fiscal year 2026 is set at "mid-teens," slightly above the current market expectation of around 12% [7][8] Group 4: Analyst Ratings and Price Target - JPMorgan maintains a neutral rating on Oracle but raises the target price from $210 to $270, citing impressive achievements in OCI business and long-term potential in AI [8][9] - The firm emphasizes that while AI-related data points may dominate short-term discussions, investors should focus on fundamental issues such as profitability and cash flow [9][10]