国泰海通｜固收：从五浪到M顶调整:技术分析视角下的本轮回调

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is likely transitioning from a completed "five-wave" pattern to an adjustment wave, with historical data suggesting that the decline from the peak could be around 30%-35% of the previous gains [1][4]. Summary by Sections Wave Theory - Wave theory, proposed by Ralph Nelson Elliott, suggests that market price fluctuations follow a cyclical pattern similar to natural tides, exhibiting identifiable patterns and cycles [2]. Historical Review of Bond Market Waves - From early 2023 to early 2025, the bond market has completed a "five-wave" sequence: 1. First Wave (March 2023 - August 2023): The end of redemption pressures led to a strong bond market amid weak economic expectations and asset scarcity. 2. Second Wave (August 2023 - October 2023): Post-unexpected interest rate cuts, profit-taking sentiments emerged alongside local government bond supply pressures, causing market fluctuations. 3. Third Wave (October 2023 - September 2024): Weak risk assets and expectations of lower interest rates fueled speculative sentiment in the bond market, despite central bank warnings about interest rate risks. 4. Fourth Wave (Late September 2024 - October 2024): Multiple policies were implemented, leading to a rapid stock market rise, which pressured bond market sentiment. 5. Fifth Wave (November 2024 - January 2025): Expectations of interest rate cuts and weak economic conditions drove interest rates down again [3]. Adjustment Wave Analysis - The bond market's adjustment wave began in February-March 2025, characterized by tightening liquidity and weakening institutional sentiment. Although there was a slight recovery, it did not surpass previous highs. The current bond market has formed an "M-top" pattern, with historical comparisons indicating that the first and second declines after reaching the peak typically reflect a drop of 30%-35% of prior gains [4].