主动戳破泡沫？泡泡玛特的终极战略浮现

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in Pop Mart's stock price is linked to fluctuations in the secondary market for its popular LABUBU products, with prices dropping significantly for earlier generations and showing volatility for the newly released mini version [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The drop in secondary prices is associated with Pop Mart's expansion of production capacity, which has increased supply significantly, with the current month's plush toy production equating to the previous year's total [3]. - The short-selling data for Pop Mart has surged, with shorted shares rising from nearly 300,000 on August 29 to over 6 million within a week, and the short-selling amount increasing from under 1 billion to nearly 2 billion [3]. - Similar market conditions were observed in June, where a buying frenzy for LABUBU led to stock price declines and increased short-selling, prompting Pop Mart to replenish stock and causing secondary market prices to drop [3]. Group 2: Stock Performance and Index Inclusion - Despite the recent stock price peak, which reached a new high on August 20, the launch of the new LABUBU series did not lead to a corresponding increase in stock price, with a decline of 20% noted by September 10 [4][5]. - On September 8, Pop Mart was included in the Hang Seng Index, which is expected to attract more investors and capital inflow, but also subjects the company to greater scrutiny [5]. Group 3: Long-term Strategy and IP Development - Pop Mart's strategy to increase production capacity aims to mitigate the chaos caused by scalpers, although this could impact long-term revenue and the company's commitment to "long-termism" [5]. - The CEO emphasized the importance of LABUBU becoming a world-class IP, suggesting that the true commercial value of an IP begins once it achieves global recognition [6]. - In 2024, Pop Mart's revenue reached 13.04 billion, with the LABUBU series alone generating 3.04 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 726.6% [6]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Competitors like TOP TOY are beginning to capture market share, with TOP TOY reporting a revenue of 742 million in the first half of the year, a 73% increase, indicating a growing challenge for Pop Mart [7]. - The founder of TOP TOY highlighted that scalpers have become the primary customers in the collectible market, which complicates the supply-demand dynamics [7]. - The industry faces a long-term challenge of moving away from being "held hostage" by scalpers and returning to a business model focused on genuine consumer value [8].