华尔街预期美联储或将降息，幅度与速度如何？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the market widely anticipates a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with discussions on whether a larger cut of 50 basis points could occur as a surprise [2] - The labor market data has shown weakness, with only 22,000 jobs added in the non-farm payroll report, leading investors to believe in the likelihood of rate cuts [3] - The private sector job growth has been particularly poor, with an average monthly increase of only 29,000 jobs from June to August, significantly down from 100,000 before the implementation of tariffs [3] Group 2 - A concerning indicator is the private sector employment diffusion index, which has dropped to 48, indicating that the number of companies laying off employees exceeds those hiring [5] - The Federal Reserve faces pressure to fulfill its dual mandate of promoting maximum employment while also controlling inflation, with upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data expected to show rising inflation [5] - Deutsche Bank's report suggests that unless the upcoming inflation data is exceptionally weak, a significant rate cut is unlikely, despite the market's full pricing of a 25 basis point cut [5]