美股IPO·2025-09-11 16:03Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that the positive fundamentals of the optical module sector have been widely recognized and fully reflected in stock prices, suggesting that investors should consider taking profits as market sentiment is high [3][5]. Valuation Analysis - Morgan Stanley's cautious stance is primarily based on valuation considerations, indicating that the valuations of New Ease and Tianfu Communication have exceeded historical +1 standard deviation levels, implying that the positive fundamentals have at least been partially digested [5][6]. - Since the beginning of 2025, the forward P/E ratio of Zhongji Xuchuang has risen from 14x to 24x, while New Ease has increased from 8x to 20x, suggesting limited further upside for New Ease as the market consensus views it as the second-largest global player with the best profit margins [5][6]. Investment Recommendations - New Ease: Downgraded to a "Reduce" rating with a target price of 255 CNY, as the current market consensus limits further upside potential [6]. - Zhongji Xuchuang: Maintained an "Overweight" rating with a target price of 435 CNY, expected to achieve significant growth in 2026 as a pioneer of 1.6T new products [7]. - Tianfu Communication: Downgraded to a "Reduce" rating with an increased target price of 142 CNY, as its profit growth potential is already reflected in the current stock price [8]. Future Outlook - The rapid rollout of 1.6T products is seen as a potential catalyst for the second half of 2025 and 2026, with expectations of increased shipments following the restart of high-end GPU deliveries [10]. - LightCounting data indicates that 800G will begin mass production in 2024, while 1.6T will start commercial production in 2025-2026, with some optical module companies having completed the validation phase for 1.6T products [10].