【有色】极地黄金上半年锑矿产量归零，锑矿供应持续紧张——锑行业系列报告之七（王招华/方驭涛/王秋琪）

Core Viewpoint - The supply of antimony from Polar Gold is expected to remain tight due to a significant decline in production, with the company reporting zero antimony output in the first half of 2025 [4][6]. Group 1: Production Decline - Polar Gold's antimony production dropped from 27,100 tons in 2023, accounting for 26% of global output, to 12,700 tons in 2024, representing a 53% year-on-year decrease and only 13% of global production [5]. - In the first half of 2024, Polar Gold produced 8,616 tons and 4,056 tons in the second half, leading to annualized production proportions of 17% and 8% of global output, respectively [5]. Group 2: Price Fluctuations - Antimony prices experienced a significant increase from January 1 to April 17, 2025, rising from 143,000 CNY/ton to 240,000 CNY/ton, a 68% increase [7][8]. - Following this peak, prices fell to 183,000 CNY/ton between April 17 and September 8, 2025, due to negative feedback from high prices and government policies targeting smuggling [9]. Group 3: Export Dynamics - In 2023, China's antimony exports accounted for 35% of its production, but from May to July 2025, exports of antimony oxide plummeted to 159, 87, and 74 tons, significantly below the normal monthly average [10]. - The Chinese government is expected to gradually restore compliant antimony exports, which may lead to a rebound in domestic prices [10].