中金：通胀未退，风险仍在积累

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent inflation data in the U.S., highlighting that the August CPI adjusted month-on-month increased by 0.4% and year-on-year rose to 2.9%, with core CPI up 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [2][6] - It indicates a shift from deflation to inflation in the core goods sector, driven by rising automobile prices, marking the highest increase since May 2023 [3][4] - The article emphasizes that while inflation data is not mild, the Federal Reserve may need to lower interest rates due to weakening employment data, although this could lead to price increases rather than output expansion, raising concerns about "stagflation" risks [6][4] Inflation Trends - The food price index adjusted month-on-month increased by 0.5%, the highest since January 2023, with notable price increases in tomatoes (4.5%), apples (3.5%), and beef (2.7%) [3] - Energy prices also saw a month-on-month increase of 0.7%, primarily due to gasoline prices rising by 1.9% [3] - Core goods prices year-on-year rose by 1.5%, indicating a transition from deflation to inflation, with a month-on-month increase accelerating from 0.2% to 0.3% [3][8] Supply Chain and Pricing Dynamics - The impact of tariffs on non-automobile goods prices was minimal in August, suggesting challenges in passing on tariff costs to consumers [4] - Price increases are primarily driven by rising supply costs rather than excessive demand, leading to a gradual and selective price increase across different sectors [4] - The core services price index year-on-year rose by 3.6%, with significant rebounds in airline tickets (+5.9%) and hotel prices (+2.4%) [4][5] Employment and Monetary Policy - The article notes that employment growth in the U.S. has nearly stagnated, while inflationary pressures continue to build, leading to a situation where "stagflation" risks are heightened [6] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in the upcoming meeting, with potential further cuts in October, but the effectiveness of such measures may be limited due to supply constraints [6][5] - The article concludes that despite inflation data not exceeding expectations, the trend is moving away from the Fed's 2% target, indicating persistent inflationary risks [5][6]