国泰海通｜新能源：再读固态电池投资机会——固态电池行情复盘与展望

Core Viewpoint - Solid-state batteries are identified as the next generation of high-performance batteries, with increasing demand for oxide semi-solid batteries and the potential for sulfide all-solid-state batteries to demonstrate vehicle integration, indicating a strengthening trend in the solid-state battery market [1][2]. Investment Recommendations - Solid-state batteries are expected to become a key development direction for high-performance batteries due to their advantages in safety and energy density, with significant market potential in consumer batteries, new energy vehicles, and low-altitude applications. Companies that are proactively investing in solid-state batteries and key materials and equipment are viewed positively [2]. - The safety and performance improvements of solid-state batteries are driven by both policy and demand. Compared to mainstream liquid lithium batteries, solid-state batteries utilize non-flammable solid electrolytes, reducing the need for flammable organic electrolyte solvents, and can be paired with higher activity materials, significantly enhancing energy density. The Chinese government plans to invest approximately 6 billion yuan in solid-state battery research and development, involving major companies like CATL and BYD [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The solid-state battery market has transitioned from being demand-driven to technology-driven. Before 2024, the focus was on semi-solid batteries, which faced challenges due to high costs and limited market acceptance. However, the demand for aviation-grade lithium batteries in the low-altitude economy is expected to drive the semi-solid battery market's growth [3]. - In November 2024, significant advancements in sulfide technology patents and increased R&D investments in all-solid-state batteries by major companies like CATL have garnered market attention, leading to a systematic rise in the new energy lithium battery sector [3]. Future Outlook - The solid-state battery industry is expected to see an upward trend in market conditions, with the gradual release of semi-solid demand and the potential for all-solid-state products to demonstrate vehicle integration. The oxide solid electrolyte is currently the most mature technology, and the commercial viability of semi-solid batteries is being realized with competitive pricing [4]. - The urgency for R&D in all-solid-state batteries is highlighted by the production planning timelines set by various automotive and battery companies for 2027, indicating a strong push towards commercialization [4].