国泰海通｜宏观：通胀温和：等待降息——2025年8月美国通胀数据点评

Core Insights - The article discusses the moderate inflation trend in the U.S. for August, driven by food and energy prices, while the transmission of tariffs remains slow, indicating that inflation will not hinder the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts in the short term [1][2] - The labor market's ongoing weakness and the Fed's assessment of tariff impacts as one-time events suggest that market focus will shift to employment risks, with interest rate cut expectations likely to persist until concerns about the job market ease [2] Inflation Data Summary - In August, the U.S. CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year (previous value 2.7%, expected 2.9%) and 0.4% month-on-month (previous value 0.2%, expected 0.3%). The core CPI remained stable at 3.1% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, aligning with market expectations [1] - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by food and energy components, while core goods showed a slight recovery, and core services remained stable [1][2] Core Goods and Services Analysis - Core goods saw a month-on-month increase from 0.2% to 0.3%, largely influenced by a rebound in used car prices (from 0.5% to 1.0%). However, the overall core goods growth, excluding used cars, remained flat at 0.17%, indicating slow tariff transmission [1][2] - In the core services sector, rental inflation was the main contributor, but its sustainability is questionable. Air travel and hotel accommodation prices increased due to tourism demand, while other service categories like healthcare and education saw declines [2] Employment and Rate Cut Expectations - The slow transmission of tariffs combined with stable service inflation suggests that inflation will not be a barrier for the Fed's interest rate cuts, with expectations of 2-3 rate cuts within the year [2] - The rise in initial jobless claims and the Fed's view of tariff impacts as temporary have shifted market attention to employment risks, with limited market sentiment disturbance from inflation [2]