历次牛市估值温度回顾：现在处在哪个位置？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the changing valuation temperature of major indices in the A-share market, highlighting the downward shift in valuation centrality and its implications for investment strategies [4][9]. Group 1: Historical Market Valuation Temperature - The article uses the CSI All Share Index to represent the overall market situation, as it encompasses nearly all A-share listed companies [6]. - The valuation temperature is calculated as the average of PE and PB percentile rankings, utilizing historical data to cover extreme market conditions [7]. - Historical valuation temperatures for the CSI All Share Index show peaks during previous bull markets: 87.57 in 2007, 54.98 in 2009, 58.89 in 2015, 56.30 in 2021, and currently at 55.73 [9][10]. Group 2: Valuation Temperature of Major Indices - The CSI 300 Index reached a peak temperature of 100 in 2007, currently standing at 46.47 [14]. - The CSI 500 Index peaked at 100 in 2007 and is currently at 52.86 [16]. - The ChiNext Index has fluctuated significantly, reaching 100 in 2010 and currently at 45.15 [20]. - The STAR 50 Index, established more recently, has a current temperature of 83.39, indicating a relatively high absolute valuation [22]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Investment Implications - The article notes that the current market temperature indicates a normal to slightly low level for large-cap stocks, while mid and small-cap stocks are performing closer to the overall market average [23]. - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding valuation temperature as a long-term indicator, suggesting that investors should calibrate their mindset using historical extremes while considering current temperatures for portfolio management [25]. - The article concludes with a note on the macroeconomic impact of bond yield fluctuations and their influence on market liquidity, anticipating potential interest rate changes in the near future [26].