傅里叶的猫·2025-09-12 10:42Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rapid advancements in the AI chip development landscape, particularly focusing on the self-developed ASICs by major companies like Google, Meta, Amazon, and OpenAI, highlighting their production forecasts and strategic initiatives [2][4]. Group 1: Google - Google is expected to ship 2.7 million TPU units by 2026, a significant increase from the previous estimate of 1.8 million [5]. - The upward revision in Google's TPU shipment forecast is attributed to consistent monthly increases in expected output and strong demand from both Google and Broadcom, which is projected to reach between 2.7 million and 2.8 million units [5]. Group 2: Meta - Meta is actively pursuing ASIC development, with a notable increase in average selling price (ASP) by five times and nearly doubling shipment volume from 5nm to 3nm ASICs [6]. - Meta has initiated two projects for 2nm ASICs, with the high-end project named "Olympus" expected to start mass production in the second half of 2027, featuring advanced specifications [6][7]. - The second project, aimed at mid-range ASICs, will utilize a customer-owned technology (COT) model, with ongoing selection of external partners for backend design [6]. Group 3: Other Companies - Amazon Web Services (AWS) maintains its ASIC shipment forecast for 2026, with potential adjustments depending on capacity releases from other clients and product structure changes [8]. - OpenAI's ASIC is projected to begin mass production in Q4 2026, with an initial shipment volume of 136,000 units [8]. - Apple faces delays in its ASIC development due to internal disagreements, making the likelihood of mass production by 2026 very low [8]. - Oracle's ASIC is expected to start mass production between 2027 and 2028, potentially targeting a Chinese cloud customer [9].