调研报告 | 山西煤焦调研：多数煤矿扭亏为盈，普遍存在节前补库需求

Market Expectations - The market generally believes that coal production in the second half of the year will not exceed that of the first half [4][7]. Demand Side - Inventory levels across the industry chain are currently low, with most coal mines facing no inventory pressure. However, a few mines are experiencing some accumulation due to slower price adjustments [9]. - There is a widespread expectation for pre-holiday inventory replenishment, anticipated to start around September 15-20, which typically increases inventory levels by 5-8 days [4][9]. Supply Situation - Most coal mines are currently operating normally, with only a brief production halt during early September for major events. The "overproduction check" policy has made production more cautious but has not led to significant supply shortages [7][12]. - The profitability of coal mines has improved significantly since June, with most now operating at a profit, although the profit margins remain limited [5][8]. Short-term Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, with pre-holiday inventory replenishment providing some support for coal prices. However, prices are unlikely to replicate the significant increases seen earlier due to poor steel margins and no significant supply shortages [11][12]. Long-term Outlook - The coal market is projected to reach a weak balance between supply and demand in the fourth quarter, with reduced volatility. The performance of the terminal steel market will be crucial in determining demand for coking coal [12][13].