燃料油LU暴跌2.58%背后的原因？

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in low-sulfur fuel oil futures prices are primarily influenced by supply-side factors, with increased low-sulfur supply and high inventory levels leading to downward pressure on prices [6][24]. Supply Analysis - The Dangote refinery has delayed the restart of its RFCC unit, which was originally scheduled for September 20, extending the shutdown by at least three months. This is expected to double the weekly export volume of low-sulfur fuel oil to around 180,000 tons over the next three months [7]. - Other Middle Eastern refineries are maintaining stable low-sulfur supply levels without significant changes [7]. - The total low-sulfur fuel oil tendered by Dangote for September amounts to 390,000 tons, with no corresponding shipping dates observed yet [9]. Demand Analysis - The demand for low-sulfur fuel oil is under pressure due to the end of the summer peak and the decline in power generation needs in the Middle East. The current demand for low-sulfur fuel oil lacks substantial support [6][24]. - In July, Singapore's marine fuel demand showed stability and slight improvement, with total marine fuel sales reaching 4.92 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 7% and a year-on-year increase of 5.7%. However, low-sulfur fuel oil sales decreased by 3% month-on-month [15]. Inventory Levels - As of September 10, 2025, Singapore's fuel oil inventory reached approximately 4.18 million tons, a slight decrease of 160,000 tons but still at a historical high. Zhoushan Port's fuel oil inventory stands at 1.18 million tons [23][24]. Price Dynamics - The price difference between low-sulfur and high-sulfur fuel oils has widened to historical highs, prompting some shipowners to switch to high-sulfur fuel. The recent price fluctuations are mainly driven by supply changes, with the low-sulfur fuel oil market facing downward pressure due to high inventory and weak demand [15][24].