硬AI·2025-09-12 14:25Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that the positive fundamentals of the optical module sector have been widely recognized and fully reflected in stock prices, suggesting that investors should consider taking profits during high market sentiment [3][5]. Valuation Analysis - Morgan Stanley's cautious stance is primarily based on valuation considerations, indicating that the valuations of New Ease and Tianfu Communication have exceeded the historical +1 standard deviation level, implying that the positive fundamentals have at least been partially digested [5]. - Since the beginning of 2025, the forward P/E ratio of Zhongji Xuchuang has risen from 14 times to 24 times, while New Ease has increased from 8 times to 20 times [5]. Investment Recommendations for Key Players - New Ease: Downgraded to a "Reduce" rating with a target price of 255 CNY, as the market consensus views it as the second-largest global player with the best profit margin, limiting further upside potential [8]. - Zhongji Xuchuang: Maintained an "Overweight" rating with a target price of 435 CNY, expected to achieve significant growth as a pioneer of the 1.6T new product in 2026 [8]. - Tianfu Communication: Downgraded to a "Reduce" rating with an increased target price of 142 CNY, as its profit growth potential is already reflected in the current stock price [10]. Future Catalysts - The rapid rollout of the 1.6T product is seen as a potential catalyst for the second half of 2025 and 2026, with expectations of increased shipments following the restart of high-end GPU deliveries [12]. - LightCounting data indicates that 800G will begin mass production in 2024, while 1.6T is expected to start commercial production in 2025-2026, with some companies having completed the verification phase for 1.6T products [12].