数据点评 | 通胀不再是联储核心矛盾？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Overview - The August CPI in the US was in line with market expectations, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.9% and a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, while the core CPI also matched expectations at 3.1% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month [1][5][6] - Despite the overall CPI meeting expectations, the underlying structure indicates limited inflationary pressure, particularly from tariff-related goods and a weakening in super core service inflation [1][4][6] Structure - The core goods CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month in August, up from 0.2% in July, driven mainly by new and used cars and clothing, while other categories like washing machines and medical goods showed weakness [2][21] - Core service inflation saw a slight increase in rent, but super core services weakened, correlating with a slowdown in job growth in relevant sectors. The core services CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month, down from 0.4% in July, primarily affected by non-rent services [2][27] Outlook - The outlook suggests that US inflation may exhibit a "slower and longer" trend, with tariffs and low willingness to pass on costs limiting goods inflation. Bloomberg forecasts the CPI to remain around 3.0% for the next three quarters [3][38] - The probability of the Federal Reserve implementing three rate cuts within the year has increased, driven by limited inflationary pressure and higher-than-expected initial jobless claims. The market has adjusted expectations for rate cuts from 2.7 to 2.9 times for the year [3][38]