【策略】牛市中，板块轮动有何规律？——解密牛市系列之四（张宇生/王国兴）

Core Viewpoint - The current bull market is primarily driven by liquidity, potentially entering its mid-stage, with TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) likely becoming the main focus in this phase [4][7]. Group 1: Bull Market Types and Stages - Bull markets can be categorized into two types: fundamental-driven and liquidity-driven, with significant price increases observed since 2010 [4]. - The stages of a bull market are divided into three phases: early, mid, and late, based on the presence of significant pullbacks in the Shanghai Composite Index [4]. Group 2: Historical Sector Rotation Patterns - Historically, there is no consistent long-term leading sector in bull markets; instead, sectors exhibit phase-specific opportunities [5]. - In liquidity-driven markets, sectors such as advanced manufacturing, TMT, and finance tend to show phase-specific opportunities, while in fundamental-driven markets, consumption, cyclical, and finance sectors are more favorable [5]. Group 3: Current Investment Focus - Currently, TMT is highlighted as a key sector to watch, with potential catalysts including strong domestic substitution demand and an anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [7][8]. - If the market transitions to a fundamental-driven phase, advanced manufacturing will be a sector of interest, with real estate becoming more relevant in the later stages of the bull market [8].