为何近年来强势增长的奇瑞，市场对其估值热情并不高？

Core Viewpoint - Chery Automobile is preparing for its listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, highlighting its growth logic and underlying issues despite high growth and profitability figures [4]. Group 1: Profit Structure - Chery exhibits a "low gross margin + high net profit" structure, which is unusual compared to its peers, as it has a significantly lower gross margin but a higher net profit margin [7][11]. - The company's net profit margin is heavily influenced by other income sources, which accounted for 5.3% of revenue, including bank interest, tax rebates, and foreign exchange gains [7][9]. - If excluding foreign exchange gains, Chery's net profit margin would drop to between 1.6% and 3.3%, aligning more closely with industry norms [7]. Group 2: Cost Structure - Chery's total expenses as a percentage of revenue are lower than comparable companies, with a combined expense ratio of 9.5% compared to 10.3% for Great Wall and 13.7% for BYD [8][12]. - The company's R&D expenditure is notably low, with a capitalized intangible asset value of only 2.4 billion yuan compared to its total assets exceeding 200 billion yuan [9]. Group 3: Sales and Distribution Strategy - Chery's sales strategy relies heavily on dealer incentives, with a significant increase in dealer rebates from 6.5% of revenue in 2022 to 8.0% in 2025Q1, which has helped expand its dealer network [20][23]. - The number of Chery's dealer outlets has grown significantly, from 3,901 in 2022 to 6,285 in 2024, correlating with the increase in rebate amounts [23]. Group 4: Capacity and Operational Challenges - Chery's production capacity utilization has been consistently above 100%, reaching 159% in 2025Q1, which has led to increased pressure on dealer prepayments and operational efficiency [24]. - The company has invested in fixed assets but has not significantly expanded its production capacity, leading to potential liquidity issues and operational strain [25][26]. Group 5: Market Valuation and Future Outlook - Chery's IPO is expected to raise between $1.5 billion and $2 billion, with market valuations ranging from 500 billion to 1,500 billion yuan, reflecting a conservative outlook compared to its revenue and growth metrics [28]. - The company's transition to electric vehicles has seen rapid growth, but future growth may face uncertainties, particularly regarding its partnership with Huawei and the performance of its new energy brand, Zhijie [29].