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AI 成为美股投资最大主题:“这不是 ROI 问题,是生存问题”
晚点LatePost· 2025-09-17 11:17
"大家都想寻找新故事,但最多的资金还是流向了算力基建龙头股。" 对二级资本市场、对不服老的创始人、对还想上一个台阶的大公司和想干掉旧巨头的新巨头,AI 现在 都是最灵的神药。 股价高涨的根源是,没有人敢第一个放松对基础算力的投资。 据甲骨文季报,他们在上一季度与三家不同客户签了四份大合同,未交付合同价值已超 4500 亿美 元,单季度就暴增 3000 亿美元——后来市场得知,开出巨额算力支票的是 OpenAI。 而这些算力基建投入,又化作英伟达、博通、甲骨文、AWS(亚马逊云)、Azure(微软云)、GCP (Google 云)的收入,给烈火烹油的美国科技股持续提供超预期业绩的兴奋剂。 由于这些最大的公司之间互相购买服务,当趋势向上,欣欣向荣的乐观被传导、放大;而当趋势反 转,变化程度也可能也超乎寻常。 8 月底,在美股科技股因一些消息因素小幅走低时,我们与两位二级资产投资配置从业者——刘迪凡 和张博,聊了他们观察到的美国机构投资者逻辑。机构是美股中的主要交易者。 刘迪凡 2020 年创立 CT Associates(赤兔资本),在全球范围寻找新兴的、有潜力的基金,为中国 LP(出资人)设计海外资产配置方案。 ...
重新认识安克创新:追求极致的成长之路
晚点LatePost· 2025-09-16 14:31
如何在多个中小品类做到全球第一? 9 月的柏林,安克创新创始人阳萌站在 IFA 讲台上,向世界展示了一个全新的安克:从品牌形象、愿 景、使命,到品牌架构、产品——一切都是新的。 阳萌回顾了安克的发展历程:"十四年前,我们从便携式充电器和移动电源起步。那时候的产品很小, 很朴实,我们只有一个简单的承诺:随时随地,充电可靠。" 十四年后,安克已经成长为一家全球化科技公司。充电宝收入占总收入的 10% 不到,三大领域品牌 Anker、eufy、soundcore 已经成为充电储能、智能家居及创意工具、智能影音娱乐领域的行业领导 者。在 IFA 现场,安克还有 8 款全新产品出现,包括扫地机器人、爬楼辅助机器人、全球首款家庭级 大模型 AI 智能体 AI core、DIY 混合型摄像头等。 安克创新 2025 年半年报显示,今年上半年安克营收 128.67 亿元,同比增长高达 33.36%,其中充电 储能 Anker 贡献了 53% 的营收,eufy 和 soundcore 的收入分别占总营收的 25% 和 21%,多个产品在 对应品类中市场份额都是第一。 支撑安克持续高速增长和头部地位的底层是:洞察用户的本质需求, ...
对话朱人杰:特斯拉前制造总监创业造车,要走马斯克未竟之路
晚点LatePost· 2025-09-15 12:20
从制造到创造,从不可能到可能。《晚点LatePost》旗下汽车品牌。 以下文章来源于晚点Auto ,作者晚点团队 晚点Auto . 执掌过 Model 3、Model Y 、Cybertruck 工厂的人,为什么 2025 年还要造车? 文 丨 李梓楠 司雯雯 龚方毅 编辑 丨 龚方毅 汽车工业的历史很大程度上是一部关于效率的历史。行业领导地位的更迭往往源于制造方式的更新。 从福特的流水线、丰田的精益生产再到大众的模块化平台,领导者们把制造方式当作产品来设计。 特斯拉曾是这一进程的继任者,CEO 马斯克比先驱们更进一步,把工厂当作产品来打造 —— 做一个制造机器的机器。过去十多年,特斯拉工程团队在他的带领下不断追求更快的产线节拍, 从引入一体化压铸技术到设计开箱工艺(Unboxed Assembly Process)组装新概念,一切创新都围绕 着提高生产效率展开,不惜推翻常规。 但 2024 年特斯拉剧烈动荡,马斯克对比特世界和叙事更宏大的机器人事业, 似乎比对汽车制造更感 兴趣 。特斯拉两个月内裁掉 1.4 万人,四位核心管理层之一的三电副总裁巴格里诺(Drew Baglino) 宣布离职。 硅谷科技媒体 ...
华与华兄弟:卖符号和词语二十年
晚点LatePost· 2025-09-15 10:49
本文首发于 2022 年 文 丨 沈方伟 宋玮 编辑 丨 钱杨 华与华的方法是,不要解释 通过 20 年的努力,创意咨询公司华与华生产的消费符号占据了中国的每一条街道。创始人华与华兄 弟自豪于他们的设计遍布中国任何一个超市、药店、书店、小卖部、大商场,线上与线下。 所有的事情都是一件事:销售。 华与华拥有知名度相当高的中国品牌客户。中国餐饮行业至今有 6 大品牌门店数超过万店,除了兰州 拉面和沙县小吃,剩下以集团品牌经营的四家,蜜雪冰城、华莱士、正新鸡排、绝味鸭脖,都使用了 华与华的服务。华与华目前服务的客户门店数量超过 60000 家,累计服务的客户门店超过 10 万家。 那些看起来简单直白、缺乏设计感的标志,或者低幼儿歌风格的推广曲,顺口溜似的押韵口号,由他 们的创意 "流水线" 高效制造出来,被他们称为 "超级符号""超级口号"。 "华与华的方法是,不要解释。" 他们说。那些符号确实一目了然。 蜜雪冰城是华与华公司最新的一张名片。为这家销售冰激凌与茶饮的连锁店,他们设计的符号包括一 款令人印象深刻的雪人形象,以及一首直白欢快的主题歌曲;为餐饮品牌老娘舅,华与华设计的符号 是把一个 "舅" 字放在一个粗线 ...
靠野生和业余,开酒馆的跳海做了一间酒店丨晚点周末
晚点LatePost· 2025-09-14 11:42
做酒店依然是在做社区。 文 丨 徐煜萌 "大部分人觉得,线下的买卖就是给你这么多钱就会变这么多店。他们只听得懂蜜雪和瑞幸规模化的故 事。" 编辑 丨 王姗姗 7 月,位于上海平武路的跳海酒馆里,梁优放下午餐的包子,前倾着身子对我说,他无法接受跳海的 估值方式和天使轮的兰州牛肉面馆 "马记永" 一样。 为了探索新的业务可能,创始人梁优接受这个估值,在去年年底拿了一笔 2000 万元的融资——这个 数字对大部分消费公司来说只够开半个工厂。 梁优见了 100 多个投资人,最后只有挑战者创投出手。元气森林创始人唐彬森 2014 年创立的这家双 币消费基金, 看重跳海的品牌和社群,可以横向去做很多业态 。但唐彬森问了梁优一个致命问 题:"如果酒馆是个好赛道,为什么跳海没有竞争对手?" 当时,跳海在全国 11 个城市开了 40 多家酒馆。开店节奏不快,因为它的开店方式是先经营好私域 ——一座城市每满 2-3 个 500 人微信群就开一家店。梁优测算过,公司在全国的直营酒馆最多开到 300 家。 梁优 1993 年出生,苏北人,本科在中国政法大学读法律,大三休学创业。跳海是他创办的第五个项 目。此前,从亲子游、线上陪伴,到 ...
为何近年来强势增长的奇瑞,市场对其估值热情并不高?
晚点LatePost· 2025-09-13 04:10
Core Viewpoint - Chery Automobile is preparing for its listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, highlighting its growth logic and underlying issues despite high growth and profitability figures [4]. Group 1: Profit Structure - Chery exhibits a "low gross margin + high net profit" structure, which is unusual compared to its peers, as it has a significantly lower gross margin but a higher net profit margin [7][11]. - The company's net profit margin is heavily influenced by other income sources, which accounted for 5.3% of revenue, including bank interest, tax rebates, and foreign exchange gains [7][9]. - If excluding foreign exchange gains, Chery's net profit margin would drop to between 1.6% and 3.3%, aligning more closely with industry norms [7]. Group 2: Cost Structure - Chery's total expenses as a percentage of revenue are lower than comparable companies, with a combined expense ratio of 9.5% compared to 10.3% for Great Wall and 13.7% for BYD [8][12]. - The company's R&D expenditure is notably low, with a capitalized intangible asset value of only 2.4 billion yuan compared to its total assets exceeding 200 billion yuan [9]. Group 3: Sales and Distribution Strategy - Chery's sales strategy relies heavily on dealer incentives, with a significant increase in dealer rebates from 6.5% of revenue in 2022 to 8.0% in 2025Q1, which has helped expand its dealer network [20][23]. - The number of Chery's dealer outlets has grown significantly, from 3,901 in 2022 to 6,285 in 2024, correlating with the increase in rebate amounts [23]. Group 4: Capacity and Operational Challenges - Chery's production capacity utilization has been consistently above 100%, reaching 159% in 2025Q1, which has led to increased pressure on dealer prepayments and operational efficiency [24]. - The company has invested in fixed assets but has not significantly expanded its production capacity, leading to potential liquidity issues and operational strain [25][26]. Group 5: Market Valuation and Future Outlook - Chery's IPO is expected to raise between $1.5 billion and $2 billion, with market valuations ranging from 500 billion to 1,500 billion yuan, reflecting a conservative outlook compared to its revenue and growth metrics [28]. - The company's transition to electric vehicles has seen rapid growth, but future growth may face uncertainties, particularly regarding its partnership with Huawei and the performance of its new energy brand, Zhijie [29].
闪购引发的全场景消费背后,今年双11的经营战场已变
晚点LatePost· 2025-09-12 13:35
Core Insights - The article emphasizes the shift from category competition to comprehensive consumption scenario competition in the retail industry [2] Group 1: Alibaba's Strategic Moves - Alibaba has expanded its traffic channels through initiatives like Taobao Flash Sale, which has increased daily active users to 419 million, a 16% growth since the beginning of the year [3] - The partnership between Xiaohongshu and Taobao has led to the "Red Cat Plan," allowing users to directly purchase products from Taobao through Xiaohongshu [3] - The launch of a membership system on Taobao has segmented users into six levels based on activity and spending, enhancing user engagement [3] Group 2: Traffic Conversion Strategies - The integration of near-field and far-field e-commerce through Flash Sale has significantly increased user engagement, with a 110% month-over-month growth in new brand entries [5] - Flash Sale has added over 12,000 new non-food brand stores, contributing to a monthly DAU increase of over 50 million [5] - Brands like Decathlon have successfully utilized Flash Sale for local fulfillment, doubling daily orders and achieving a 70% share of instant delivery orders [6] Group 3: Offline to Online Synergy - Brands with physical stores, such as Zhao Yiming Snacks, have seen a 240% increase in sales through Flash Sale, demonstrating the effectiveness of online traffic driving offline sales [7] - The "high-frequency driving low-frequency" model allows brands to capture potential demand through targeted advertising based on consumer behavior [8] Group 4: AI-Driven Marketing - AI has become a crucial tool for optimizing advertising strategies, allowing for more precise targeting based on user behavior data [9] - The AI capabilities of Alibaba's marketing platform have improved the efficiency of ad placements, leading to a more reliable return on investment [10] - AI's ability to analyze long-term consumer behavior has enhanced the prediction of purchasing intentions, allowing for timely marketing interventions [10] Group 5: Evolving E-commerce Landscape - The traditional single-event sales model is being replaced by a more dynamic and frequent marketing approach, as seen in the upcoming Double 11 sales event [14] - The introduction of multiple promotional events, such as Super 88, has increased user engagement and purchasing frequency [14] - The focus on long-term customer relationships and retention is becoming more critical as the industry evolves [17]
晚点独家丨阿里到店第一步:高德做榜单,重做一套线下信用体系
晚点LatePost· 2025-09-10 01:32
从高德开始,但不会只是高德做。 文 丨 管艺雯 在大力投入即时配送到家的淘宝闪购 133 天后,阿里终于迈出了又一次开展到店业务的第一 步。 我们独家了解到,在阿里巴巴 9 月 10 日公司周年庆这一天,高德宣布推出 "高德扫街榜",主 要分为美食、酒店、景区三类,尤其以线下餐饮商家的榜单为主,此外还包括一些特色美食榜 单,比如 "本地人爱去""多次前往""烟火小店" 等,将覆盖全国 300 多个地级市。 NI O 4911 49 ... (38) 20:54 >< > · 上海市・ 《高德扫往ì榜》 结合芝麻信用计算的真实评价生成的高德扫街榜 器正 区 横沙 直浦区 A 2.1W+ ▲ 全年热度值94 综合评分 4.7 > 晓平饭店(嘉善路店) 上海菜 ¥102/人 15.7公里 葱油黄贝必点 | 红烧肉软烂 | 响油鳝丝地道 ( 外婆家红烧肉是最好吃的一次,肥肉Q弹,瘦肉爽脆, 甜而不鼻,完全颠覆了我对红烧肉的认知 201人也在说> 全城 - 状元榜 全城 · 2025 必吃美食 必去景点 必住酒店 扫街榜 烟火小店 - 2025 - 轮胎磨损榜 一 专程前往 一 5.4k+ 多次前往 -回头客 本地人爱 ...
从东部下沉到西部升级,拼多多的电商增量
晚点LatePost· 2025-09-09 09:26
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant transformation of the e-commerce landscape in China's western regions, highlighting the role of Pinduoduo in driving this change through innovative logistics solutions and strategic initiatives aimed at enhancing consumer access and experience in these previously underserved areas [2][3][12]. Summary by Sections E-commerce Landscape in Western China - Historically, the western regions of China were neglected in the e-commerce boom, with only 7.5% of the national express delivery volume in 2022 despite covering over one-third of the country's land area [2]. - The lack of logistics infrastructure and high shipping costs hindered consumer access to online shopping, leading to suppressed demand [2][4]. Pinduoduo's Initiatives - In 2022, Pinduoduo introduced a transit collection model and established a collection warehouse in Xi'an to penetrate the western market [3]. - By September 2024, Pinduoduo implemented a policy to waive second-stage shipping fees for remote areas, significantly expanding the free shipping range to include most regions in six western provinces [3][7]. - The company launched a "100 billion support" plan to further boost e-commerce in the west, resulting in over 40% year-on-year growth in order volume from the region [3][13]. Logistics Challenges and Solutions - The logistics challenges in remote areas, such as difficult terrain and high costs, have historically deterred many logistics companies [4][5]. - Pinduoduo's transit collection model allows for segmented transportation, reducing costs and improving delivery times, with average logistics time from Shenyang to Inner Mongolia now at 3 days [6][7]. - The implementation of the fee waiver policy led to a dramatic increase in order volume, from dozens to at least 1,000 orders per day at some logistics stations [6][7]. Market Dynamics and Consumer Behavior - The shift to e-commerce has allowed previously suppressed consumer demand in the west to flourish, with significant increases in orders for essential goods and other products [9][10]. - The growth in e-commerce has also led to a rapid increase in retail sales in western provinces, with Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi showing notable year-on-year growth rates [11]. Strategic Importance of Western Markets - As the eastern e-commerce market matures, western regions present a new growth opportunity for platforms like Pinduoduo, which has already established a user base in these areas [12]. - The article emphasizes the potential for cross-border e-commerce in western regions, supported by national strategies to shift industries westward and improve logistics infrastructure [15]. Financial Performance - Pinduoduo reported a total revenue of 103.98 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 7%, indicating resilience in its business model despite broader market challenges [13][14].
晚点独家丨上汽总裁亲自盯至少 4 款新车开发,打破以往惯例
晚点LatePost· 2025-09-09 09:26
以下文章来源于晚点Auto ,作者晚点团队 晚点Auto . 从制造到创造,从不可能到可能。《晚点LatePost》旗下汽车品牌。 上汽内部人士认为,改革探索期内,"总裁亲自下场是短期内最有效的方法。" 文 丨 郭瑞婵 编辑 丨 龚方毅 上汽集团的转型与改革持续进行中。我们获悉,上汽大乘用车板块整合后,总裁贾健旭深度参 与了旗下品牌重要产品的决策过程, 亲自抓名爵 MG4、尚界 H5、荣威 M7 与 智己 LS9 等新 车的开发。 一位接近大乘用车板块的知情人士告诉我们,贾健旭每周都会盯这四款产品的进度与状态,看 产品有什么问题、怎么解决问题,"他对新车提了很多细节上的建议,包括座椅增加调节角度 等内饰改动,这些建议都执行得很快。" 为了给产品改进留出时间,名爵 MG4 与荣威 M7 都曾 延后上市。 另一位接近尚界项目组的知情人士表示,除了第一款车 H5,贾健旭也在抓尚界接下来要推出 的两款新车,每周都会过项目进度与重点问题。 敢说敢做、干活拼命是上汽员工对贾健旭的印象。他上任总裁一个月后就在年中干部大会敞开讲了内 部存在的弊病及各个业务板块的发展方向,与华为谈基于智选车模式的合作,推动尚界成为最后一个 搭 ...