Bank of America(US:BAC) 第一财经·2025-09-13 04:45Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current bullish sentiment in the U.S. stock market, highlighting potential risks associated with extreme optimism among investors, as well as the increasing attractiveness of gold as a hedge against inflation and market volatility [3][4]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Predictions - The U.S. stock market continues to reach historical highs, driven by expectations of three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [3]. - Michael Hartnett, Chief U.S. Equity Strategist at Bank of America, warns that extreme bullish sentiment could signal an impending market reversal, as indicated by the upcoming global fund manager survey [5]. - Hartnett notes that if institutional cash holdings drop below 3.7% and stock allocations rise from an overweight of 14% to 30%, it may trigger alerts in Bank of America's proprietary trading model [5]. Group 2: Investment Trends - Hartnett summarizes the current investor mindset as being bullish on stocks until concerns arise regarding the midterm elections in spring [6]. - Data from Bank of America Private Client shows that stock allocation in client portfolios has reached 64.2%, the highest level since March 2022 [6]. - Gold funds have seen significant inflows, with $3.4 billion added in a single week, marking the fourth-largest weekly inflow in history [8]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The article introduces the "ABD" (Anything But the Dollar) investment philosophy, indicating a shift in investment preferences, while AI themes remain popular [8]. - Hartnett proposes a "BIG" strategy, focusing on Bonds, International assets, and Gold, advocating for a risk allocation strategy that balances high-risk and conservative investments [8]. - Despite a positive outlook on international assets, Hartnett anticipates a shift in market preferences towards Europe in spring, China in summer, and Japan by year-end [9].