金价历史新高！还能走多远，现在还能不能上车？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in gold prices, driven by central banks' de-dollarization efforts and increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid macroeconomic uncertainties [5][6][12]. Group 1: Reasons for Gold Price Surge - The first key factor driving the rise in gold prices is the global trend of central banks moving away from the US dollar, leading to increased purchases of gold to adjust their reserve structures [7][8][9]. - The second factor is the heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset due to macroeconomic uncertainties, with $40 billion flowing into gold ETFs and related funds in the first half of the year [12][18]. Group 2: Future of the Gold Bull Market - The continuation of the gold bull market depends on multiple factors, including ongoing central bank purchases and persistent macroeconomic uncertainties [18]. - Historical data shows a strong negative correlation between gold and the US dollar; a weaker dollar could further boost gold prices [19]. - If the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, it may enhance gold's relative attractiveness, supporting its price [19]. Group 3: Risks and Considerations - Current gold prices are at historical highs, and even favorable conditions may not fully offset potential downward risks [21][22]. - Gold's inflation-adjusted price is currently more than double its long-term average, indicating a risk point [22]. - Gold has experienced significant volatility historically, with periods of both rapid price increases and declines [24][26]. Group 4: Strategic Use of Gold in Portfolios - Gold is not a yield-generating asset; its price is primarily influenced by supply and demand rather than intrinsic value [29]. - For long-term preservation of value, gold may be a suitable choice, but it may not be the best option for asset appreciation [29]. - Gold's role as a risk diversification tool in investment portfolios is significant, with a low correlation to major asset classes like A-shares [30][31].