半年内的首个看空信号！

Core Viewpoint - The market is showing its first bearish signal in half a year, with a recommendation to reduce positions in the main board and small-cap sectors to low levels, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [5]. Market Performance - Last week, the market recorded gains, with the CSI 300 index up 1.38%, the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.52%, and the CSI 500 index up 3.38%. Speculative funds became active again, pushing various sector indices to their highs before August [3]. Economic Indicators - The domestic economy is showing signs of weakening while inflation is rising. Recent import and export data showed significant weakness, which has hindered the enthusiasm of some institutional investors. Financial data released last Friday appeared stable but is actually weakening, with expectations of a slowdown in year-on-year growth in the coming months. Meanwhile, CPI and PPI data have shown a rebound, indicating a temporary stagflation cycle in the Chinese economy [3][4]. Technical Analysis - There is a deepening divergence in the funding landscape. While the market has been driven by funds since June, institutional funds have shown a more decisive reduction in positions, while speculative funds are attempting a final upward push. The strength of technical signals has weakened [4]. Sector Positioning - The main board's market-driving forces are becoming increasingly differentiated, shifting from fundamentals to funds, and then to speculative funds. This indicates that market volatility is likely to increase further. The recommendation is to reduce positions in the main board to low levels, marking the first sell signal in half a year. The small-cap sector also showed slight advantages due to speculative activity, but overall differentiation has increased, suggesting a balanced style for the time being [5]. Short-term Focus - The short-term momentum model suggests focusing on the communication industry [5].