谈谈银行业绩周期的几个阶段

Group 1: Interest Rate Cycle - The current economic adjustment phase is characterized by a rate cut cycle aimed at stimulating the economy, which is a typical response during such periods [3] - In the early to mid-stage of the rate cut cycle, both LPR and deposit rates decrease, leading to pressure on bank performance as asset re-pricing occurs faster than liabilities, resulting in challenges such as increased asset quality control [3][4] - Towards the end of the rate cut cycle, the reduction in LPR slows down, allowing banks to enter a more comfortable performance zone as net interest margins begin to recover [3] Group 2: Stable Interest Rate Period - After the rate cut cycle, a stable interest rate period is expected, where banks benefit from lower liability costs and improved asset quality, leading to increased net interest income and reduced credit impairment losses [5][6] - In the later stage of the stable period, while asset quality continues to improve, the cost of liabilities remains stable, allowing banks to maintain comfortable performance levels [6][7] Group 3: Interest Rate Hike Cycle - An interest rate hike cycle occurs when the economy overheats, with both LPR and deposit rates increasing, leading to a faster re-pricing of assets compared to liabilities, which enhances net interest margins [8][9] - In the later stage of the hike cycle, the impact of rising deposit rates becomes evident, but the increase in asset yields slows down, which may suppress net interest margins and return on equity [9][10] Group 4: Overall Economic Cycle Understanding - The cyclical nature of bank performance is crucial for long-term investors, as banks typically reserve profits during prosperous years and release provisions during challenging times, reflecting a normal phenomenon in banking operations [11] - The discussion around declining ROE during this period lacks significance without recognizing the cyclical nature of bank performance, which can lead to linear extrapolation errors [11]