【广发宏观团队】年初以来大类资产在定价什么

Group 1 - The performance of major asset classes since the beginning of 2025 has been led by precious metals, with COMEX gold rising by 38.8% and COMEX silver by 45.8% [1] - Emerging market stocks have also performed well, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index up 19.7% and the Vietnam VN30 Index up 38.7% [1] - The technology sector has seen significant gains, with the NASDAQ rising by 14.7% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index increasing by 20.5% [1] Group 2 - The weakening of the US dollar credit and the "soft decoupling" of asset classes are key themes driving asset performance [2] - Geopolitical factors are reshaping global supply chains, leading to a "backup" of supply and increased value for key metals and resources [2] - A new wave of technological revolution, particularly in renewable energy and artificial intelligence, is creating new demand for non-ferrous metals [3] Group 3 - The expectation of US interest rate cuts has led to a rise in global stock markets, with Chinese technology assets leading the gains [4] - The G7 long-term bond yields have decreased, and the US dollar has weakened against most currencies, supporting the performance of commodities like gold and silver [5] - The recent performance of gold has shown a strong correlation with external markets, with London gold prices rising by 1.6% to $3,651 per ounce [6] Group 4 - The Chinese stock market has seen a return of high growth narratives, particularly in technology and real estate sectors, with the overall A-share index rising by 2.12% [12] - The automotive industry is projected to achieve stable growth, with a target of approximately 3% year-on-year growth in sales by 2025 [26] - The electric power equipment industry has set a target for an average revenue growth rate of around 6% from 2025 to 2026 [24] Group 5 - The recent economic data indicates a recovery in both actual and nominal GDP, with September's actual GDP growth estimated at around 4.76% [17] - The PPI is expected to show a slight recovery due to low base effects, with projections indicating a monthly decline of around -0.13% [19] - The liquidity environment is being closely monitored, with the central bank increasing base currency injections to stabilize market fluctuations [20]