新一任美联储主席花落谁家？对市场影响几何？｜国际

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential candidates for the next Chair of the Federal Reserve, nominated by Trump, and their possible impacts on the Fed's future and global capital markets. Candidate Summaries - Kevin Hassett: Current Director of the National Economic Council, long-time economic advisor to Trump, and architect of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. He advocates for interest rate cuts and believes the Fed should align with government economic goals, downplaying inflation risks. His controversial past includes data falsification in 2007 and pandemic prediction failures in 2020. If elected, he may accelerate rate cuts, stimulating short-term growth but risking long-term inflation and dollar depreciation, raising concerns about central bank independence [1][2][4]. - Christopher Waller: Current Fed Governor and former research director at the St. Louis Fed, he is a monetary policy expert. He supports data-driven rate cuts and emphasizes balancing political pressures with central bank independence. Waller is seen as the most favorable candidate, with a 45% chance of being elected, potentially leading to stable policies and moderate rate cuts that could benefit risk assets while keeping dollar volatility manageable [4][5]. - Kevin Warsh: Former Fed Governor who participated in crisis management and has a strong financial background. He has called for coordination between the Fed and Treasury, which could undermine independence. Recently, he has shifted to support rate cuts, but his historical inconsistency raises uncertainty. If elected, his policies may increase market volatility and support the dollar in the short term, but long-term independence concerns could elevate risk premiums [4][5]. Impacts on the Fed and Global Capital Markets - Both Hassett and Warsh's tendencies towards political interference in monetary policy could undermine the Fed's credibility, while Waller's approach focuses on balance. All three candidates support rate cuts, suggesting a potential shift towards easing monetary policy by 2026, ending the current high-rate cycle [4][5]. - Short-term Effects: Hassett's election could lead to rising U.S. Treasury yields and a weaker dollar, while Waller's leadership may support a moderate recovery in risk assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies [5]. - Long-term Risks: The politicization of monetary policy could exacerbate global inflation pressures, with emerging markets needing to guard against capital outflows and currency shocks. The final candidate is yet to be announced, with expectations for a decision before May 2026, making the upcoming Fed meetings critical for market participants [5].