美联储即将重启“降息周期”，高盛：财政货币双宽松、新联储主席、AI刺激，都将推高明年的资产和通胀

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs warns that the upcoming interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve is relatively straightforward this year, but may face complexities in 2026 due to loose financial conditions, fiscal stimulus, and AI-related risks [1][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Cuts - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate its first interest rate cut next week and continue to lower rates until the end of the year [3]. - Goldman Sachs believes that the current U.S. labor market is softening, with indicators such as unemployment rate and job vacancies showing a downward trend [4]. - Despite uncertainties in actual employment growth, the unemployment rate has already increased, prompting the Fed to normalize policy rates closer to neutral levels [4]. Group 2: Inflation and Asset Prices - As the policy rate approaches 3%, the Fed will face more complex decisions, especially if the labor market does not deteriorate sharply [5]. - The market is pricing in a dovish premium for the terminal rate during Trump's term, reflecting a lower probability of rate hikes [5]. - Since early June, the U.S. financial conditions index has eased by 75 basis points, with the stock market being the largest contributor [6]. Group 3: Economic Growth and AI Impact - Potential GDP is expanding at approximately 2.25%, with strong productivity growth offsetting negative impacts from reduced immigration [6]. - Goldman Sachs anticipates that as the effects of high tariffs diminish and fiscal policy becomes more expansionary, the U.S. economy will gradually accelerate back to potential growth levels by 2026 [6]. - The key question remains how much AI technology can elevate this growth figure [6].