“5个月大涨32%的美股”碰上“恢复降息的美联储”，下周会发生什么？

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market, after a record surge of $14 trillion, is at a critical turning point as the Federal Reserve is expected to restart its rate-cutting cycle, creating a complex interplay between monetary policy expectations and economic slowdown concerns [1][3]. Market Dynamics - The S&P 500 index has surged 32% since its low in April, driven by expectations of multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, with the market fully pricing in a 25 basis point cut next week [3][5]. - Historical data suggests that after the Fed pauses rate hikes for six months or more and then resumes cuts, the S&P 500 typically sees an average increase of 15% over the following year [5][6]. Economic Concerns - Despite strong economic growth and healthy corporate profits, rising unemployment rates have raised concerns about the potential for an economic "hard landing," leading to debates on the extent of necessary rate cuts by the Fed [6][10]. - The market's performance reflects a shift in risk appetite, with traditional monetary policy's influence being challenged by structural changes in investment flows [6][8]. ETF Influence - ETFs have attracted over $800 billion in funds this year, with $475 billion flowing into the stock market, indicating a significant structural force reshaping market logic [7][8]. - The "automatic driving effect" of ETFs, where retirement savings are regularly invested in passive index funds, provides stable support for risk assets regardless of economic data [7][8]. Investment Strategies - Historical patterns during rate-cutting cycles show that cyclical sectors like financials and industrials perform best when the economy is strong and the Fed makes only a few preventive cuts [9]. - Conversely, in periods requiring more substantial cuts due to economic weakness, defensive sectors such as healthcare and consumer staples tend to outperform [9][10]. - Investors are focusing on various strategies, with some favoring small-cap stocks sensitive to interest rates, while others continue to hold leading tech stocks like Nvidia and Amazon, betting on their resilience amid gradual economic slowdown [9][10].