“央行超级周”来了--这36小时交易员要“连轴转”了

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming "Central Bank Super Week" will see major central banks, including the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada, announce interest rate decisions, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut from the Fed to address a weakening labor market and respond to calls from the White House [1][3][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Decision - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is anticipated to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, marking the first reduction since Trump's second term began, influenced by pressure from the White House and signs of labor market weakness [4][5]. - Economic data, including retail sales and unemployment claims, will be critical indicators leading up to the Fed's decision, with expectations of a 0.3% increase in retail sales for August [5]. Group 2: Global Central Bank Actions - The Bank of England is likely to maintain its benchmark rate at 4%, focusing on its quantitative tightening plans amid recent market volatility [6]. - The Bank of Japan is expected to keep rates unchanged, signaling no immediate tightening actions despite a path towards policy normalization [6]. - The Bank of Canada is projected to follow the Fed's lead with a rate cut, reducing its overnight rate to 2.5% due to disappointing employment data and economic contraction [6]. Group 3: Emerging Markets Central Banks - Most emerging market central banks, including those in Indonesia, Brazil, and South Africa, are expected to adopt a cautious stance and maintain current interest rates, with Brazil's rate likely remaining at a 19-year high of 15% [7].