米莱布省败选引发阿根廷股债汇“三杀”——海外周报第106期

Core Viewpoint - The defeat of Argentina's ruling coalition in the Buenos Aires provincial elections on September 7 has led to significant turmoil in the financial markets, with the Argentine peso dropping nearly 6% against the US dollar on September 8, attracting global attention [2][10]. Group 1: Election Results and Economic Impact - The ruling coalition led by Javier Milei suffered a shocking defeat, with the Peronist party "Patria Fuerza" receiving 47% of the votes compared to Milei's party, which garnered only 34% [4][11]. - Despite achieving notable economic successes, such as reducing the CPI from over 200% to below 40% and achieving a fiscal surplus in Q1 2025, these accomplishments did not translate into electoral support due to the painful impacts of Milei's reforms on daily life [4][12][13]. Group 2: Market Performance - Following the election results, the Argentine financial market experienced a "triple kill" in stocks, bonds, and currency on September 8, with the MERVAL index plummeting over 10% to its lowest level since October 2024, and the price of sovereign bonds falling nearly 7 cents [5][15]. - The Argentine central bank intervened by selling dollars in the spot market and restarting overnight repurchase agreements to absorb market liquidity, which contradicted Milei's previous commitment to a free market and raised concerns about policy consistency [5][16]. Group 3: Market Perspectives - There is a divide among Wall Street institutions regarding the outlook for Argentina, with optimistic analysts betting on Milei's reform commitment and visible economic results overcoming political resistance, while cautious analysts warn that reforms lacking a solid governing foundation may struggle to continue [6][19]. - Optimistic institutions like JPMorgan and Bank of America maintain a "buy" rating on Argentine sovereign bonds, believing that Milei can adjust his political strategy despite the electoral setback [21]. - Conversely, Morgan Stanley has adopted a cautious stance, retracting its "positive" rating on Argentine assets and advising clients to adopt a "wait-and-see" approach due to political uncertainties stemming from corruption scandals and the election defeat [22].