降息周期即将重启？-20250915

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential restart of the interest rate cut cycle in the U.S. amid economic challenges and ongoing trade negotiations between China and the U.S. [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points due to a weak labor market, with non-farm employment increasing by only 22,000, significantly below the expected 75,000 [2][18] - China's new social financing in August reached 2.57 trillion yuan, with new loans amounting to 590 billion yuan, indicating a tightening monetary environment [1] - The M2-M1 scissor difference in China has reached a four-year low, suggesting a shift in liquidity dynamics [1] Group 2: Commodity Insights - Gold prices are experiencing a strong upward trend, driven by inflation data and expectations of multiple interest rate cuts in the U.S. this year [2][18] - Copper prices are fluctuating due to tight supply and high smelting output, with mixed signals from various sectors such as power, automotive, and real estate [3][19] - The overall market for precious metals remains bullish, with central banks, particularly in China, continuing to increase their gold reserves [2][18] Group 3: Industry Developments - The Chinese government is implementing measures to promote private investment, focusing on easing market access and supporting new infrastructure projects [5][6] - The power equipment industry in China is expected to maintain steady growth, with traditional power equipment revenue projected to grow at around 6% annually [7] Group 4: Market Performance - U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down by 0.59% and the Nasdaq up by 0.44%, reflecting sector-specific performance variations [4] - The Chinese capital market is entering a strategic allocation phase, with a focus on technology growth indices showing higher volatility and potential returns [9]