“申”度投资 | 难得的“牛市不怕等”阶段

Core Viewpoint - The current market phase is characterized as a period of price-performance digestion, expectation anchoring transition, and waiting for new catalysts, with a focus on the continuous stimulation of technology industry trends that maintain market momentum [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The A-share market is currently in a phase where it needs to address three main issues: low short-term price-performance ratio, the need for re-anchoring expectations, and unclear structural main lines for index progression [1]. - The price-performance indicators tracked are generally at high levels but have slightly declined, while the profitability effect of the ChiNext relative to the CSI 300 has rapidly contracted to a low level [1][2]. Group 2: Industry Trends - Recent signals of high growth in overseas AI capital expenditure have reinforced the trend of AI computing power, which is expected to continue, while the overall performance of Q3 reports may decline further [2]. - The emergence of market demand for energy storage is reminiscent of the narrative surrounding new energy in 2019, with significant expectations surrounding Tesla's robotics technology [2][4]. Group 3: Investment Outlook - The current phase is described as a rare "bull market not afraid to wait" stage, where the A-share market is in a "double bottom area" for fundamentals and capital inflow, with only two possible outcomes: continued bottoming or improvement [3][4]. - The core reason for this bull market phase is that as time progresses, high-growth sectors will continue to increase, and the channel for residents to allocate equity will become smoother, enhancing future win rates and odds [3]. Group 4: Structural Opportunities - The focus is on creating a structural bull market, particularly in the AI computing power industry chain, solid-state batteries, and energy storage, which are seen as high-potential areas with significant depth [4][5]. - The transition from structural bull to a comprehensive bull market is driven by the anti-involution trend, with particular attention on the global market share of photovoltaic and chemical industries [5]. Group 5: Fund Flows and Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment indicators show a continued expansion in profit-making effects across various sectors, with notable performance in non-ferrous metals, steel, and electronics [7]. - The ETF market reflects varied performance, with significant changes in share volumes and price movements across different sectors, indicating a dynamic investment landscape [8].