贝塔投资智库·2025-09-15 04:12Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs significantly raised growth expectations for AI servers and AI data center switches, indicating that data center hardware driven by AI is the strongest theme in the US tech sector, while traditional equipment demand remains weak [2][3]. AI Server and Data Center Switch Growth - AI data center switches are projected to reach a market size of $26 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 36%, a substantial increase from the previous forecast of $2 billion, primarily due to concentrated demand release in 2028-2029 [3]. - Traditional servers are expected to decline at a CAGR of -2% from 2024 to 2029, while traditional data center switches will grow at a mere 5%, highlighting a stark contrast with the AI sector [3]. Key Players in AI Server Market - Dell has emerged as the largest winner in the AI server market, with significant market share gains [4]. - The growth of AI servers is highly concentrated in the secondary cloud service provider segment, which is expected to achieve a CAGR of 66% over five years, reaching a size of $239.298 billion by 2029 [5]. Market Share Dynamics - In the secondary cloud service provider market, Dell's market share surged by 22 percentage points to 46%, while competitors like NVIDIA, Supermicro, and white-box manufacturers saw declines [6]. - In the enterprise market, Dell's share increased by 13 percentage points to 30%, while NVIDIA's share dropped by 6 percentage points to 16% [6]. AI Data Center Switches - Ethernet technology dominates the growth in the switch market, particularly in backend products, which are expected to grow at a CAGR of 50% from 2024 to 2029, reaching $14 billion [7]. - Frontend Ethernet switches are projected to grow at a CAGR of 46%, reaching $10 billion by 2029, while InfiniBand switches are expected to decline at a CAGR of -1% [7]. Customer Demand for AI Switches - Enterprise customers show the most urgent demand for AI switches, with a projected CAGR of 64% over five years [9]. - Secondary cloud service providers and super-scale enterprises are also expected to see significant growth, with CAGRs of 55% and 41%, respectively [9]. Company Ratings and Outlook - Arista Networks (ANET) is rated "Buy" with a target price of $155, benefiting from strong revenue from major cloud giants [10]. - Dell Technologies (DELL) is rated "Buy" with a target price of $150, supported by trends in AI server demand and IT spending recovery [11]. - Cisco Systems (CSCO) is rated "Neutral" with a target price of $37, facing market share challenges but with a solid backlog [13]. - Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) is rated "Neutral" with a target price of $25, with concerns over profitability in its server and hybrid cloud segments [15]. - Supermicro (SMCI) is rated "Sell" with a target price of $27, facing challenges from commoditization in the AI server market [17].