瑞银会议纪要：中国稀土主导全球供应链格局难以撼动

Core Viewpoint - The meeting concluded that China's dominant position in the rare earth market, particularly in reserves and refining, is unlikely to be shaken in the short term [2]. Supply Side - China contributes 60-70% of global rare earth mining and holds about 90% of refining capacity, with a technological lead of at least 20 years over foreign competitors [3]. - The refining cost in China is only one-third of that of overseas counterparts, creating a significant barrier to entry for other countries [3]. Demand Side - The demand for rare earths is driven by three main sectors: electric vehicles, wind power, and robotics [4]. - Each electric vehicle requires 3.5 kg of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr), while each wind turbine needs 600 kg of neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) magnets [4]. - By 2028, NdPr oxide prices are expected to remain between 600,000 to 700,000 CNY per ton (approximately 80-95 USD per kg), with heavy rare earths like dysprosium and terbium showing even stronger price momentum [4]. Overseas Projects - Despite attempts by overseas companies to challenge China's dominance, they face high costs, limited scale, and significant environmental pressures, making it difficult to alter China's position in the short term [5]. - MP Materials, a U.S. strategic project, has questionable commercial viability due to higher refining costs and reliance on government subsidies, with profitability unlikely in the next five years [6]. - Lynas, an Australian project, is more competitive but still faces environmental compliance challenges and relies on China for heavy rare earth supplies [6]. Heavy Rare Earths Dependency - The supply dominance of China in heavy rare earths is expected to continue in the short term due to the immaturity of overseas mining and refining technologies, as well as high costs [7]. Recycling and Alternative Technologies - China currently accounts for 60% of global rare earth recycling, with a recovery rate of 90-95%, primarily from electric vehicle motors, wind turbine blades, and electronic waste [9]. - By 2028, recycled rare earths are projected to meet about 35% of global supply needs, alleviating pressure on primary mining [9]. - In contrast, the U.S. and Europe lag in recycling technology and face high environmental costs, hindering progress in their recycling industries [10]. - Alternative materials currently under research are unlikely to pose a significant threat to rare earth demand within the next decade [11].