AI信仰正在推动经济增长

Group 1 - The article discusses the lagging effect of productivity in relation to the adoption of AI as a general-purpose technology, highlighting that significant improvements in productivity take time to materialize after the technology is commercialized [3][6][10] - Historical examples show that technologies like the steam engine, generator, and computer took many years after their invention and commercialization to noticeably enhance productivity [3][5] - Current productivity growth rates in the EU and the US are below historical averages, with EU labor productivity declining by 0.6% in 2023 and expected to grow by only 0.4% in 2024, while US productivity growth since 2020 averages 1.8%, below the long-term average of 2.2% [6][10] Group 2 - AI adoption rates are still low, with the EU's enterprise AI adoption rate averaging 13.5% and the US at 9.2%, indicating that AI's impact on economic growth will not be significant in the short term [7][10] - Despite the low profitability of AI model companies, there is a high expectation for future returns, leading to increased capital expenditures among major internet companies in the US and China [11][13] - In 2024, capital expenditures for major US internet companies are projected to reach $245 billion, significantly contributing to GDP growth, with AI data center spending surpassing consumer spending for the first time [13][15] Group 3 - The article draws parallels between the current AI wave and historical technological expectations, suggesting that belief in AI's potential is driving economic growth more than the technology itself [18][19] - The discussion extends to nuclear fusion as a future energy source, with significant investments being made in fusion technology, indicating a similar pattern of high expectations and investment as seen with AI [20][24] - The article concludes by highlighting the dichotomy of belief in technological advancements, questioning whether the current AI and nuclear fusion trends will fulfill their promises or follow historical patterns of delayed realization [27][29]