【广发宏观郭磊】经济数据延续放缓，政策加力概率上升

Economic Overview - August economic data shows continued slowdown, with six major indicators (exports, industrial output, services, retail sales, investment, and real estate sales) all below previous values. GDP estimates based on production and expenditure methods are approximately 4.67%, lower than July's 4.91% [1][7][8] Industrial Performance - Industrial added value in August grew by 5.2%, down from 5.7% in the previous month. The slowdown in export delivery value, which saw a year-on-year decline of 0.4%, is a significant drag on industrial performance [2][12] - High-tech industries continue to show resilience, with added value increasing by 9.3%. Key products like new energy vehicles and solar cells maintain high growth rates [2][13] Retail Sales - Retail sales growth in August was 3.4%, a decrease from 3.7% in July. Notable trends include accelerated rural consumption and a slowdown in urban consumption [3][14] - Categories with relatively high growth include sports and entertainment, jewelry, and home appliances, driven by service consumption trends and policy benefits [3][15] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment saw a significant decline, with cumulative year-on-year growth dropping from 1.6% to 0.5%, and a monthly decline of 6.3%, worsening from -5.2% previously. Real estate, manufacturing, and infrastructure investments are all contributing to this downturn [4][16] - Manufacturing investment showed a year-on-year decline of 1.3%, indicating a slowdown in equipment updates [4][16] Real Estate Market - The real estate sector is experiencing a downward trend, with sales area, new starts, construction, and investment all showing increased year-on-year declines. The new housing price index in 70 major cities fell by 0.3% month-on-month, consistent with previous values [5][20][21] - Real estate investment in August saw a year-on-year decline of 19.4%, with new construction area down by 20.3% [5][20] Economic Phases - The economic rhythm of this year can be divided into three phases: strong growth in Q1 driven by exports and real estate, a resilient Q2 despite external disturbances, and a noticeable slowdown in July and August [5][22] - If Q3 GDP is estimated at 4.8%, achieving the annual target of 5.0% will require a Q4 growth rate of approximately 4.64% [5][22] Policy Outlook - Current macroeconomic policy is in the second phase, focusing on stabilizing cash flow and profit statements. The government is expected to continue its counter-cyclical adjustments following the release of August economic data [6][23]